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Quarterly Update

Created on Tuesday, 08 January 2019. Posted in Content/our blog

... the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates too rapidly, that the trade war with China would escalate, that there was a recession on the immediate horizon, that the health of the banking system was ...

Happy Holidays

Created on Tuesday, 18 December 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... for the next five years, or maybe you're willing to gamble a bit that interest rates will stay low or even decline in the future. Maybe you need a lower monthly payment to help make your first home more ...

Don't Believe the Hype

Created on Tuesday, 11 December 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... might a recession begin? The average time from inversion to recession is about 20 months, but the actual timeframes all over the place. The following chart from JPMorgan illustrates this issue. So ...

Picking Out the Good Stuff

Created on Monday, 05 November 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... rates, slowing economic growth, ongoing geopolitical concerns and select disappointing earnings guidance, U.S. stocks are down roughly 7% quarter-to-date. International stocks have fared worse, with the ...

The Search for Silver Linings

Created on Monday, 29 October 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... better. Corporate earnings are solid but guidance from companies about future earnings is trending softer. Interest rates are still historically low, but the Federal Reserve may continue raising rates ...

Volatility is Normal

Created on Monday, 15 October 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... new tariffs still look like they can be absorbed by U.S. companies, interest rates are still rising slowly by historical comparison, and U.S. equity valuations are now marginally below average. As a result, ...

Quarterly Update

Created on Monday, 01 October 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... the Fed will continue to raise interest rates as the economy grows. With three increases this year and one more expected, bond investors have readjusted prices downward (prices move in the opposite direction ...

What’s with Emerging Markets?

Created on Tuesday, 11 September 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... Primarily, the issue has to do with investor sentiment around U.S. trade policy (tariffs), but a close second has to do with something more nebulous: currency exchange rates. The dollar has been climbing ...

CDs Versus Bonds

Created on Tuesday, 04 September 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

When rates on CDs are higher than bonds, why invest in bonds at all? If most bond prices are negative so far this year, why not sell them and just deposit the money at the bank where we can earn a couple ...

Stashing Cash

Created on Tuesday, 21 August 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

A common question lately has been about what to do with cash at the bank. Interest rates have been rising and have finally started lifting yields on certificates of deposit (CDs). But are rates good now ...

Monday Morning Quarterbacking

Created on Tuesday, 14 August 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... debt levels There's a power trio, of sorts, that has been playing the tune for many in our economy for a long time: low wage growth, low savings rates, and low interest rates that encourage borrowing. ...

When Bad News is Good News

Created on Monday, 09 July 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... who had previously given up the search came back into the fold. The following chart from my research partners at Bespoke Investment Group illustrates this point. Now that these folks have started looking ...

Quarterly Update

Created on Tuesday, 03 July 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... indexes. Central bankers throughout these areas are still trying to stimulate their economies with negative interest rates, so growth could pick up over coming quarters. In response to these concerns, ...

Rickety Rails

Created on Monday, 28 May 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... (in this case 5,000 whereas we run 1,000) trying to simulate a wide variety of potential outcomes based on assumptions for birthrates and life expectancy, income from payroll taxes, interest payments from ...

The Third Rail

Created on Tuesday, 22 May 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... including longer lifespans, reduced birthrates (current birthrates are historically low – we need a minimum birthrate to sustain population growth and have more taxpaying workers entering the system), ...

Seeing the Curve

Created on Tuesday, 08 May 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... economic growth and higher interest rates in the future.  But as the outlook changes and other factors come into play, such as the Fed raising short-term interest rates (impacting the left-side, ...

Deficits and Tariffs

Created on Monday, 09 April 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... rates and the second is what some view as a brewing trade war with China. With all the rhetoric bouncing around it's hard not to feel nervous. Anytime the word "war" is used it's bound to ramp up the tension ...

Quarterly Update

Created on Tuesday, 03 April 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... pessimistically, just two rate increases. In February, as measures of economic growth continued to show strength the stock and bond markets suddenly began to fear the Fed would raise rates faster than ...

Mixed Messages

Created on Tuesday, 27 March 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... raised short-term interest rates again by 0.25%. This marked the sixth time the FOMC had raised rates since 2008 with all the increases happening since December 2015. Why is this positive? Well, because ...

When the Music Stops

Created on Tuesday, 13 February 2018. Posted in Content/our blog

... rates were labeled as the primary culprits, but the real blame should be laid on the markets themselves. After more than a year of very low volatility the stock market was primed for a bout of profit taking, ...