Election Day

As you have likely heard, U.S. stocks posted their ninth losing day in a row last Friday. The S&P 500 declined 2.24% during this stretch, almost entirely due to pre-election jitters and negative headlines from both candidate's camps.

None of the daily moves were huge, but there was a steady and disappointing increase in pessimism across markets. All 11 sectors were affected, some more than others. Health Care, for example, fell almost 4%, while Materials and Industrials declined by less than 0.5%.

But just when this election cycle and market activity couldn't get any stranger, as of yesterday morning the S&P 500 had made back almost all its nine-day decline with the release of the second of what are now known as "The Comey Letters". I won't rehash their details here, but this is yet another indicator of how whacky the stock market can be day-to-day.

As I have written previously, what matters most to markets in the longer term are economic fundamentals. Eventually, that's what the market and investors remember as hyperbolic headlines fade into the background. 

At the corporate level, earnings growth is on track for its first positive quarter since late-2014. The job market continues to improve and we're seeing continued wage growth. U.S. GDP is increasing and the global economy is also showing signs up picking up. Pretty good, all things considered.

We'll see how Election Day turns out, but whomever next occupies the Oval Office will likely face stiff opposition in Congress. This will make it unlikely for major policy changes to play out quickly unless compromise becomes fashionable.

Since today is finally the big day, continue reading for some interesting voting-related factoids:

• The main reason people give for not voting... "Too Busy"!
• The U.S. is ranked 139th out of 172 countries in voter participation.
• Voting by mail, or other "non-traditional" methods, accounted for more than 46 million (or nearly 36%) votes in the 2012 General Election. Some estimates expect this to rise by nearly 10% this year.
• The Constitution does not state when Election Day should be, which meant that in the early 1800s, people could vote from April to December.
• In 1845, Congress decided that Election Day would be the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, which was after the fall harvest and before winter conditions made travel too difficult. They were busy back then, too.
• The word "election" is from the Latin eligere, which means, "to pick out, select" and is related to the world "lecture".
• Which age group is most likely to vote?
  • 61% for ages 65 and older
  • 54% for ages 55-64
  • 37% for ages 25-54
  • 25% for ages 18-24
• As of a few weeks ago, there were almost 19.5 million registered voters in California, or about 78% of those eligible. This percentage has continued to increase over time.
• Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine have the highest voter turnout, from 75% and just over 70%, respectively. The lowest turnout is in Hawaii, at about 52%.
• Before 1804, the presidential candidate who received the second highest electoral votes became vice-president. Now that's an entertaining thought...

Have questions? Ask me. I can help.