Good morning and Happy Tuesday. I hope you enjoyed the Labor Day holiday, our unofficial end of summer. It also marks the end of the summer market doldrums (although this one was pretty busy) and the start of what’s typically a volatile period for stocks. Volatile but also positive. While September can be rough, the final three months of the year are usually favorable. Whatever the reasons, and there are many, these next several months will certainly be interesting for investors.
But this week I’d like to stray from my typical posts with a quick note welcoming a new member to the Ridgeview Financial Planning team. Suzanne Allen comes to us from a career ranging from owning a small business to business administration and project management. She is joining us as our Operations Manager and will be handling all you might expect that sort of job to entail. We’re excited to welcome Suzanne and I look forward to her helping us help you better.
Otherwise, I wish you a good week and a pleasant beginning to autumn.
“May you live in interesting times” is an ominous saying based on an old Chinese curse, although the history of that is a little dubious. I looked it up because the variety of news we’ve been subjected to lately has a lot of people feeling stressed and perhaps even doomed to constant uncertainty. I don’t have any answers for that and you probably don’t either. However, I’ll suggest that optimism is a choice that can be difficult to make but at least offers a break from the stress of life.
I’m also thinking about this while reflecting on all we’ve been through in the markets during the past ten years. There have been selloffs, flash crashes, full-blown meltdowns, election surprises, political and social turmoil, wars, and a pandemic that shook our markets, economy, and culture to their respective cores. Never a dull moment or a lack of things to worry about. Maybe that’s the downside of paying attention.
So much has happened these past ten years and yet the stock market has done extremely well. Massive volatility has often been followed quickly by massive gains, so much so that only two years in the past ten saw the S&P 500 posting annual declines. During 2018 the market dropped due to a trade war with China, slowing global growth, and concerns about the Fed and interest rates. During 2022 it was inflation and, again, concerns about the Fed and interest rates. But investors did well if they bought and held quality investments, paid attention to rebalance as needed, and generally focused on what could be controlled. These investors were rewarded for their patience and intestinal fortitude while being reminded of another popular saying, “If it was easy, everyone would do it.” Investing is an optimistic act often done during times of pessimism. Is that ever easy?
If you’re wondering, I’m thinking specifically of this timeframe because this July/August marks my ten-year anniversary of leaving the brokerage world and starting my own firm.
It’s always tough to charge out on your own and my situation was probably typical. I had a young family, a mortgage and not enough savings, but a dream of putting clients first, owning my own tomorrow, righting industry wrongs, and so forth. I left my former employer with nothing and they still sued me. Go figure. That, I came to find out, was more about perpetuating a cautionary tale to keep other colleagues from hanging up their own shingle as I did. I’m sure it worked to keep other would-be independent advisors chained to their desks, but it pissed me off and helped drive me when times were lean. And lean they were. Since I didn’t sell products with a large upfront commission, I had to build and wait, aided by raiding my 401(k). I like to think this paid off handsomely but doing so was nerve-wracking at the time.
Anyway, these past ten years have often been challenging but always fulfilling. I don’t think everyone can or even should own their own business, but I wouldn’t have traded my experience away for anything. All the decisions. The mistakes. All the surprises. All the stress. Not even during the dark early days of Covid, when major indexes were moving with otherworldly wildness, did I think seriously of throwing in the towel. Sure, there were times I reminded myself of the scene in the original Top Gun when Goose asks Maverick about the number for that truck driving school, but there was always another day and, as I suggested, optimism is a choice.
All kidding aside, the last ten years have been a blast and I’m excited about the next ten and beyond. I continue to build slowly for the long-term and hope to make a staffing announcement soon.
But while I’ve done the work you’ve provided the most important ingredient – your trust. I’m deeply grateful for and humbled by the trust you place in me and my staff and we hope to keep earning it.
That said, as I’ve done seasonally in the past I’m taking some time off from writing these posts. I’ll still be hard at work, just cutting the workload back a bit. If you need anything, please ask. Otherwise, have a great rest of your summer and I’ll be back to these posts again soon.
Have you heard of a vibecession (pronounced like recession but beginning with “vibe”)? Apparently the term was coined by an economics blogger a couple of years ago and it’s been showing up quite a bit lately. I heard some people discussing the term the other day as if it were old news. Well, not to me…
We’ve discussed this idea several times before but it goes something like this, according to the blogger, Kyla Scanlon, who wrote an interesting piece about her idea back in 2022 (a link is below if you’re interested).
“Vibecession – a period of temporary vibe decline where economic data such as trade and industrial activity are relatively okayish.”
Relatively okayish – I like that. It seems to meet the moment. To me, a vibecession happens when enough people feel bad enough about their outlook, regardless of their current situation, that they cut back enough on spending for it to impact national economic data. A self-fulfilling prophecy, essentially. Have we seen one and/or are we in one? It depends on who you ask.
Sentiment was definitely negative in 2022 when the termed originated. Inflation peaked that summer and the Fed quickly raised interest rates to fight it. Stocks had a bad year as did bonds. Median national home prices dipped in response. And consumer sentiment cratered that summer, as you would expect from combining negative forces like these.
All of that happened and we still managed to skip an economic recession, at least going by the official definition. But we absolutely saw a vibecession, or whatever else you want to call it, and it lingers for many. The issue now is that much of what fed into the confused and somber mood ended up being transitory, at least by traditional economic metrics. National average inflation has come back to more normal levels. Interest rates are high compared to recent history but aren’t especially high when compared to long-term averages. Bonds have been struggling while stocks have come roaring back, and home prices continue to make record highs. Additionally, the job market is in good shape and, perhaps surprisingly, investment in US manufacturing has been making a big comeback.
That said, consumers still say they feel down in the dumps. This is odd because, just to cherry-pick one contrary data point, people are flying. The TSA reports that roughly 2.5 million US passengers flew per day around Independence Day last week and 3 million flew last Sunday, a single day record! Perhaps that’s partly due to the average cost of plane tickets being lower than 2022, according to tracking from the website, Nerd Wallet. This is just one example but consumers continue to spend across the economy even as they express concern over inflation and the job market, to name a couple typical pain points.
So why are so many people still professing to be in good shape now but gloomy about their prospects? Look at the chart below from my research partners at Bespoke Investment Group? Pessimism hasn’t matched up with reality for a while now. Is this cognitive dissonance at work, bad data, or a symptom of some broader issue?
The reasons for this go far beyond the realm of personal finance. People point to the news and social media, politics, and so forth, as feeding into a general sense of negativity and unease. This shows up across the demographic spectrum but seems more prevalent with younger people. I don’t understand all the reasons for this. However, at least on the finance side it’s clear that those with assets have been doing much better than those without. This is by design since our economy and even entire financial system favors those who own assets like homes and stocks. If you rent and don’t have savings, you don’t feel increases in the so-called wealth effect. You don’t benefit from home equity improvement – home ownership is just more unattainable. And rising stock prices don’t help for the same reason. Lots of American consumers have seen inflation in recent years without a way to counteract it. Even the Fed indirectly punishes these folks because borrowing cost more when the Fed raises interest rates. Perhaps folks in this category are more inclined to be surveyed and that skews the numbers? But wouldn’t they be less likely to say their present situation is good? It’s confusing.
Enough negative sentiment can become a self-fulfilling prophecy. The vibecession concept has been showing up more in the culture lately if not yet in most macroeconomic numbers, so it must be gaining traction. Maybe it will reach critical mass or maybe it’s simply an indicator of a gloominess that can, perhaps strangely, exist amid optimism and growth. Whatever the answer this is certainly an odd situation we should all pay attention to.
What a few weeks we’ve had. Summertime has usually been a quiet time for stock and bond markets but that hasn’t been the case in recent memory. Just this month we’ve had a major shot of volatility, a rapid snapback, and then last week the Fed telegraphed as clearly as it could that it’s time to reduce interest rates. Add those events to all the election cycle news and it’s been a busy summer indeed. Let’s take a few minutes to assess the situation with everything that’s been going on in the markets.
We saw stock prices drop quickly earlier in August. The tide started to turn going into the first weekend and selling accelerated the following week. Ostensibly this was about a disappointing jobs report and Fed policy but what it really seemed like was a lot of trading algorithms taking profits. Whatever the catalyst, it was fast to go down and fast to come back up. According to my research partners at Bespoke Investment Group, the S&P 500 went from “extremely overbought” (compared to its 50-day moving average) to “extremely oversold” in 13 days and then roundtripped that over the next 14 days. That’s one of the fastest bouts of V-shaped volatility in decades. Prices have mostly been higher since so you’d be forgiven if you were on a cruise or something and didn’t know what all the fuss was about. Volatility like that feels horrible at the time but, unfortunately, it’s part of what we have to put up with as long-term investors.
Markets react to a variety of information on any given day but Fed policy/interest rates have been top-of-mind for so many for so long that rate anxiety can occasionally bubble over. That certainly fed into the market volatility just mentioned and, perhaps ironically, also helped markets to recover so fast. This was because as stock prices were falling investors quickly assumed that the Fed would have to lower interest rates soon, and some even said an emergency Fed meeting would be imminent. It’s not the Fed’s job to prop up the stock market but assumptions about a shift in Fed policy got baked in anyway. That, plus other positive economic news helped push prices higher.
Then last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a speech that “the time has come” to start lowering rates. This wasn’t because of market volatility; it was because the inflation situation has improved and higher interest rates have become “restrictive”. Fed Chairpersons usually aren’t that explicit and the rate-setting committee hasn’t yet made a formal decision. However, it seems like this is the shift investors have been waiting for.
Usually the Fed begins an easing cycle by cutting rates by a quarter point, followed by larger reductions over subsequent meetings. As I type investors are pricing in a 70% chance of that quarter point cut while 30% assume a half-percent cut when the Fed meets again in September. This means exactly 0% of the market assumes no cut next month. Further cuts are priced in over following months that would take the Fed Funds rate, the main short-term benchmark that’s relied on so heavily in our financial system, down by maybe 2% from about 5.5% now. Whatever the reduction ultimately is, this should be a tailwind for the economy and, by extension, the stock and bond markets.
Earlier in August when stocks were faltering bond prices were rising. The yield on the benchmark 10yr Treasury note dropped (as bond prices rose) to about 3.8% from over 4%. This yield drives the rate on 30yr mortgages and led to a spike in refinance activity that has settled down a bit sense. Expect those rates to fall further in the months ahead, probably leading to more refinancings which helps more recent homeowners who bought amid higher rates. Lower mortgage rates should also help a national housing market that has been struggling in some areas. And lower rates from the Fed will help borrowers with loans, like credit card balances and equity lines of credit, tied to the PRIME rate. This benchmark is currently at 8.5%, not historically high but certainly high compared to recent history. Any reduction in PRIME will lower borrowing costs for a lot of people, but a 2% reduction perhaps by next Summer would be welcome indeed.
The prospect of lower interest rates has also been giving the bond market a lift. Assuming rates follow something like the expected path, this should continue to buoy bond prices and is a reason to cautiously start putting cash (money market cash and short-term CDs maturing soon) back into medium-term bonds.
Volatility spikes like we saw earlier this month aren’t very common. However, when they have occurred it’s often been in the context of a rising market. Whatever happens in the months ahead, just try to be prepared for the unexpected. Ensure your investment portfolio is set up correctly (my job for many of you reading this) and that your financial house is generally in good order.
So we’ve had some excitement this Summer amid an otherwise positive market and economic environment. Some parts of the stock market had gotten a little ahead of themselves earlier this year and this has levelled out a tad. Inflation is nowhere near the problem it was two years ago and the economy seems to be trucking along. Eventually we’ll see a recession but it doesn’t seem likely anytime soon (I’m literally knocking on wood as I write this…).
One of the bottom lines we should remind ourselves of is that we’re still, even after four-plus years, dealing with issues stemming from the pandemic. Our economy and financial system is large and complicated so it makes sense that historic government intervention back then would take time to work its way through the system. The Fed getting its benchmark short-term rate back to normal (generally agreed to be around 2% lower than current) would be sort of like closing the book on a lingering chapter of Covid’s history.
Pay now or pay later, that’s the main question when we think about taxes on our retirement accounts and it’s one with lasting consequences. A client recently sent me an article about converting traditional IRAs to Roth IRAs in the context of government debt. Let’s touch on that while discussing some of the basic considerations for people who feel they need to play catchup when it comes to Roth accounts.
The history of individual retirement accounts coincides with the decline of employer-sponsored pension plans. I won’t go into all of that here. However, some context is important. The shift began in the 70’s and 80’s to account types that were owned, managed, and the responsibility of employees instead of employers. This led to the 401(k) structure we’re all familiar with and, over time, the expansion of IRAs. To incentivize savings the government gave workers a tax deduction on contributions and the employer got a tax break (and less burden from not having to provide workers with a pension) when it added money to an employee’s account. Employers had rules to follow when structuring plans, but otherwise employees were on their own to manage their 401(k)s if that was an option and, if not, their IRA.
That was (and still is) the primary option for retirement savings until the late-90’s when Roth IRAs were created by Congress. Roth accounts flipped the tax savings thinking around – savers gave up a tax deduction on their contribution but got tax free growth if they left money in the Roth long enough. As with traditional IRAs, Roth accounts weren’t available in the workplace. Instead, savers opened and funded these accounts based on various limitations, such as the original $2,000 maximum annual contribution. This was raised over time to the current $7,000, or $8,000 for those age 50 or older.
Decades of inertia around this led to most savers having most of their money in tax-deferred 401(k) accounts and IRAs instead of in a Roth. Any dollar saved for retirement is positive, but the long-term reliance on traditional plans leaves many savers facing a series of tax bills because every dollar in those accounts will be taxed as ordinary income when withdrawn.
Say you contributed $100,000 during your working years and your balance grew to $1 million. Nice job! You saved on taxes while saving for retirement and haven’t paid taxes on dividends, interest, and gains in your account the whole time. The US Treasury has been waiting decades for tax revenue and they’ll eventually get it. Part of how they collect is by requiring you to start taking distributions by age 73 whether you need the money or not. Most retirees would have already started taking distributions for obvious reasons, but many don’t. These latter folks are left paying taxes on income they don’t actually need. On a million-dollar balance the first required distribution could be $38,000, all taxable in the year distributed. That could kick the account owner into a higher tax bracket or more if this income coincides with a spouse’s distribution, Social Security income, and so forth. Too much taxable income is a good problem to have but it’s still a problem.
It’s this group that Roths appeal to most in hindsight since Roth IRAs don’t have the minimum distribution requirement. The challenge is how to get money that’s currently in a traditional retirement account into a Roth.
This is where Roth Conversions come in. You do this by having your existing custodian (your workplace plan or brokerage firm) move cash and/or investments from your traditional balance into Roth. Sounds straightforward, right? There might be some forms but otherwise it’s all electronic and shouldn’t cost anything… in fees. However, the conversion gets taxed as income during the year you convert. You have the option to withhold taxes at the time, but generally speaking it’s better to pay at tax-time with other money (doing so helps the Roth conversion break even faster). The ultimate tax bill depends on a variety of factors that are beyond the scope of this post, but your tax advisor or humble financial planner can help you figure this out.
So planning ahead to reduce the impact of required distributions makes good sense depending on your current tax situation. But what if taxes are higher in the future, and should you try to preempt that by converting more now? Aren’t higher taxes a given with government debt being so high?
Our national debt is massive, more than twice that of any other country and larger than the next four higher-debt country’s debt load combined, according to a quick Google search. That sounds bad. However, we should remember that our economy is equally massive and our nation’s debt functions differently than our personal household debt does. To grossly oversimplify, our government can continue to refinance its debt indefinitely so long as there are willing lenders. And willing lenders abound. Our bonds are the most liquid in the world and our currency is involved in an overwhelming majority of all foreign exchange transactions. Sure, there may come a time when our economic status and currency is meaningfully different, but that’s not likely anytime soon.
Ensuring long-term dollar primacy requires that we keep our fiscal house in order. However, it doesn’t necessarily matter in the way many in the marketplace use to scare (for lack of a better word) people into buying a product or books about investing in gold or paying abnormally high tax bills when converting traditional retirement account balances into a Roth.
So consider your motivation for doing a Roth conversion and make sure it makes sense for your personal situation. Run some tax projections while weighing other options for shielding your IRA from taxes, such as donating money from your IRA to charity tax-free if you’re at least 70.5 years old. This can be a good way to offset taxes on required minimum distributions while helping the organizations you value. Beyond that, be careful about how quickly you try to play catchup with the perceived benefits of a Roth IRA.
The second quarter (Q2) of 2024 continued this year’s A Tale of Two Markets: AI Versus Everyone Else. Large indexes like the S&P 500 performed well but this was driven primarily by a handful of large companies. Otherwise, market breadth was mixed with performance growing worse as company size grew smaller. Bonds also continued their tale of woe while experiencing a couple of positive glimmers during the quarter.
Here’s a roundup of how major markets performed during Q2 and so far this year, respectively:
US Large Cap Stocks: up 4.4%, up 15.2%
US Small Cap Stocks: down 3.3%, up 1.6%
US Core Bonds: about flat, down 0.7%
Developed Foreign Markets: down 0.2%, up 5.8%
Emerging Markets: up 4.4%, up 6.7%
As I just mentioned, major stock indexes in the US looked great on paper as average returns seemed to rise steadily throughout the quarter. The largest publicly-traded stocks related to artificial intelligence performed best. Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia each ended Q2 with a $3+ trillion market capitalization and the worst performer of the bunch, Apple, was up 24% during the quarter. These and other popular Large Cap Growth names within the Technology and Communication Services sectors, like Google and Meta, now occupy such a large portion of the market that they massively impact index performance. Last quarter was positive because of this but performance could easily have gone the other way. This is plain when looking at benchmarks like the Russell 1000 that include the 500 largest stocks (similar to the S&P 500) and the next 500 smaller companies. According to my research partners at Bespoke Investment Group, this index rose by a respectable 3.3% during Q2. However, the top four stocks in the index added four percentage points of gain. Without them the remaining 996 stocks would have collectively averaged a small loss. Nvidia alone was worth almost 48% of the index’s gain. Besides the aforementioned sectors along with Consumer Staples and Utilities, up 1% and 4.6%, respectively, all other sectors in the US were negative during Q2. This is a reminder of how imbalances in the markets can be masked by average index performance and how this can promote investor complacency. Always look beyond the label – it’s what’s inside that matters.
This sort of imbalance isn’t unprecedented. Markets reflect the economy and substantial changes in market perspectives have coincided with every major development from the railroads to the creation of the internet. The rise of AI seems likely to be historically significant for the economy and markets, and maybe that’s a vast understatement. Only time will tell but we have to watch how these imbalances impact your portfolio in the meantime.
Beyond AI impacting the stock market, the bond market saw some positive moments during Q2 compared to recent quarters. Bond prices are highly sensitive to changes (anticipated or actual) in interest rates and rates were on the minds of investors again. As 2024 began investors expected the Federal Reserve to cut rates as much as half a dozen times during the year assuming inflation improved. However, inflation remained elevated and Fed officials indicated that rates could stay higher for longer. Investors quickly recalculated and the yield on the 10yr Treasury, an important benchmark, rose in April causing bond prices to fall. This reversed a bit in June as inflation and Fed policy forecasts seemed to improve. As Q2 ended the CME FedWatch website indicated investors were again expecting the Fed to reduce rates 3-4 times this year (and more into early-2025). These expectations could be overeager and have whipsawed quite a bit in recent weeks. This uncertainty will likely persist during the second half of this year.
So what to do about AI-driven imbalances in the stock market and the continued plight of core bonds. If you’re doing the “right” thing you’ll have diversification across asset classes (stocks, bonds, and cash), sectors (Technology, Healthcare, Financials, and so forth – there are eleven sectors in the US), and industries. Within bonds you’ll likely have exposure to those issued by the US Treasury, large corporations, and government agencies. You may also have bonds issued by states and smaller municipalities. You’ll have ready cash that pays essentially nothing in terms of interest, but you might also have some cash in a money market or CD at a decent rate. You have all these investment types so you’re not pinning your hopes on any one or two at a time. Sure, it would be nice to luck into having all of your money in Nvidia stock as it grows exponentially, but what if Nvidia got walloped or failed? I’m not suggesting this is likely. However, recall some of the many examples over time of massive growth followed by massive failure like Enron or maybe Pets.com. Those stories should stimulate a prudent desire to hedge your bets. Own it all in manageable and appropriate proportions. Then rebalance as needed based on a specific and repeatable process. You’ll get lift from AI-related stocks (or whatever else is popular at the time) while enjoying safety in numbers. You probably won’t beat the market on any given day but you’ll have a good chance of beating the system over the long run. And bonds are still helpful as a store of cash for the medium-term. You should continue to hold them in your portfolio along with complimentary instruments like short-term CDs and money market funds.
There’s uncertainty as we enter a new quarter, as always, but the economy is doing well and most of the stock market isn’t overvalued. I’m optimistic about returns for the rest of the year but I plan to stay disciplined and focused on long-term performance versus chasing what’s popular. I humbly suggest you do the same.
